Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jul 12th, 2023

Stacey Mass • July 12, 2023

Bank of Canada raises policy rate 25 basis points, continues quantitative tightening.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

July 12, 2023

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

Global inflation is easing, with lower energy prices and a decline in goods price inflation. However, robust demand and tight labour markets are causing persistent inflationary pressures in services. Economic growth has been stronger than expected, especially in the United States, where consumer and business spending has been surprisingly resilient. After a surge in early 2023, China’s economic growth is softening, with slowing exports and ongoing weakness in its property sector. Growth in the euro area is effectively stalled: while the service sector continues to grow, manufacturing is contracting. Global financial conditions have tightened, with bond yields up in North America and Europe as major central banks signal further interest rate increases may be needed to combat inflation.

The Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projects the global economy will grow by around 2.8% this year and 2.4% in 2024, followed by 2.7% growth in 2025.

Canada’s economy has been stronger than expected, with more momentum in demand. Consumption growth has been surprisingly strong at 5.8% in the first quarter. While the Bank expects consumer spending to slow in response to the cumulative increase in interest rates, recent retail trade and other data suggest more persistent excess demand in the economy. In addition, the housing market has seen some pickup. New construction and real estate listings are lagging demand, which is adding pressure to prices. In the labour market, there are signs of more availability of workers, but conditions remain tight, and wage growth has been around 4-5%. Strong population growth from immigration is adding both demand and supply to the economy: newcomers are helping to ease the shortage of workers while also boosting consumer spending and adding to demand for housing.

As higher interest rates continue to work their way through the economy, the Bank expects economic growth to slow, averaging around 1% through the second half of this year and the first half of next year. This implies real GDP growth of 1.8% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024. The economy will move into modest excess supply early next year before growth picks up to 2.4% in 2025.

Inflation in Canada eased to 3.4% in May, a substantial and welcome drop from its peak of 8.1% last summer. While CPI inflation has come down largely as expected so far this year, the downward momentum has come more from lower energy prices, and less from easing underlying inflation. With the large price increases of last year out of the annual data, there will be less near-term downward momentum in CPI inflation. Moreover, with three-month rates of core inflation running around 3½-4% since last September, underlying price pressures appear to be more persistent than anticipated. This is reinforced by the Bank’s business surveys, which find businesses are still increasing their prices more frequently than normal.

In the July MPR projection, CPI inflation is forecast to hover around 3% for the next year before gradually declining to 2% in the middle of 2025. This is a slower return to target than was forecast in the January and April projections. Governing Council remains concerned that progress towards the 2% target could stall, jeopardizing the return to price stability.

In light of the accumulation of evidence that excess demand and elevated core inflation are both proving more persistent, and taking into account its revised outlook for economic activity and inflation, Governing Council decided to increase the policy interest rate to 5%. Quantitative tightening is complementing the restrictive stance of monetary policy and normalizing the Bank’s balance sheet. Governing Council will continue to assess the dynamics of core inflation and the outlook for CPI inflation. In particular, we will be evaluating whether the evolution of excess demand, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing behaviour are consistent with achieving the 2% inflation target. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 6, 2023. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the Monetary Policy Report on October 25, 2023.

Read the July 12th, 2023 Monetary Policy Report

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Finance Your Home Renovations

By Stacey Mass • June 25, 2025

If you’re looking to do some home renovations but don’t have all the cash up front to pay for materials and contractors, here are a few ways to use mortgage financing to bring everything together. Existing Home Owners - Mortgage Refinance Probably the most straightforward solution, if you’re an existing homeowner, would be to access home equity through a mortgage refinance. Depending on the terms of your existing mortgage, a mid-term mortgage refinance might make good financial sense; there’s even a chance of lowering your overall cost of borrowing while adding the cost of the renovations to your mortgage. As your financial situation is unique, it never hurts to have the conversation, run the numbers, and look at your options. Let’s talk! If you're not in a huge rush, it might be worth waiting until your existing term is up for renewal. This is a great time to refinance as you won’t incur a penalty to break your existing mortgage. Now, regardless of when you refinance, mid-term or at renewal, you’re able to access up to 80% of the appraised value of your home, assuming you qualify for the increased mortgage amount. Home Equity Line of Credit Instead of talking with a bank about an unsecured line of credit, if you have significant home equity, a home equity line of credit (HELOC) could be a better option for you. An unsecured line of credit usually comes with a pretty high rate. In contrast, a HELOC uses your home as collateral, allowing the lender to give you considerably more favourable terms. There are several different ways to use a HELOC, so if you’d like to talk more about what this could look like for you, connect anytime! Buying a Property - Purchase Plus Improvements If you’re looking to purchase a property that could use some work, some lenders will allow you to add extra money to your mortgage to cover the cost of renovations. This is called a purchase plus improvements. The key thing to keep in mind is that the renovations must increase the value of the property. There is a process to follow and a lot of details to go over, but we can do this together. So if you’d like to discuss using your mortgage to cover the cost of renovating your home, please connect anytime!

First-Time Homebuyer? A New GST Rebate Could Put Thousands Back in Your Pocket

By Stacey Mass • June 20, 2025

If you’re a first-time homebuyer eyeing a new build or major renovation, there's encouraging news that could make homeownership significantly more affordable. The federal government has proposed a new GST rebate aimed at easing the financial burden for Canadians entering the housing market. While still awaiting parliamentary approval, the proposed legislation offers the potential for thousands in savings —and could be a game-changer for buyers trying to break into today’s high-cost housing landscape. What’s Being Proposed? Under the new legislation, eligible first-time homebuyers would receive: A full GST rebate on homes priced up to $1 million A partial GST rebate on homes between $1 million and $1.5 million This could mean up to $50,000 in tax savings on a qualifying home—a major boost for anyone working hard to save for a down payment or meet mortgage qualification requirements. Why This Matters With interest rates still elevated and home prices holding steady in many regions, affordability remains a challenge. This rebate could offer meaningful relief in several ways: Lower Upfront Costs: Removing GST from the purchase price reduces the total amount of money buyers need to save before closing. Smaller Monthly Payments: A lower purchase price leads to a smaller mortgage, which translates to more manageable monthly payments. Improved Mortgage Qualification: With a reduced purchase amount, buyers may find it easier to meet lender criteria. According to recent estimates, a homebuyer purchasing a $1 million new home could see monthly mortgage payments drop by around $240 —money that could go toward savings, home improvements, or simply everyday expenses. Helping Families Help Each Other This proposal also offers a win for parents who are supporting their children in buying a first home. Whether through gifted down payments or co-signing, a lower purchase price and more affordable monthly costs mean that family support can go further—and set first-time buyers up for long-term success. Is This the Right Time to Buy? If you’re thinking about buying a new or substantially renovated home, this proposed rebate could dramatically improve your financial position. Now is the perfect time to explore your options and make sure your mortgage strategy is aligned with potential policy changes. 📞 Let’s connect for a free mortgage review or pre-approval. Whether you’re buying your first home or helping someone else take that first step, I’m here to help you make informed, confident decisions.